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My story (still strugglin) and how Forex broke me in more ways than one + need support
we all know the stats, although I have yet to see them official somewhere. Nevertheless, 90-98% of traders fail. Reasons are many, most of them give up within a year. You know the bunch, saw some flashy indicators and stuff, thought "hey, whats so difficult, I'm gonna trade this MA crossover" and they have a winning run and feel high and mighty until they go down burning. Then you have the people on the right track, where they still get tired after many attemps at a profitable strategy. Then, you have people who finally have an approach in terms of analysis, and then they realize the entry technique is just half of it - and suck at exits, leaving their stops unprotected, or watching idly as the market brings them into 30 pip profit just to reverse and whip their stops, only to continue afterwards. And finally, you have the people who have an approach, have a full on ready strategy, know how the market moves, and start losing money due to FOMO, and emotions in general. I'm one of those people. And that does not make me unique, I know that, but what is also a fact, and is giving me a hard time today, is something that is not often spoken about. You see, I actually stopped overrisking and I mitigated FOMO. I put scripts on my platform to manage my risk instead of me, locking me out if I risk too much. I automated that part, and now I face the weirdest of all issues. I have a profitable strategy, giving a really nice R return on backtesting and forwardtesting. But, when I put money in, I bail out. I trade it, it's not that I'm scared, but I fail to believe in my own making. And I have been at it for 6 years; this is not an overnight thing. The strategy I made, it took me 6 years to make it mine and perfect it. Yet, every time I take a couple of losers (whilst I know my strike rate is below 50% and a couple of losers in a row mean absolutely nothing) I look at what others are doing. I go to fintwit, or I read some new (or old but forgotten) book. I caught a couple of losers and started scalping (my main strategy is swinging on 1hr chart) on the 1 minute chart, b/c I read a book some time ago, teaching that method. I've lost 30+ accounts (i don't demo trade, i deposit a micro account of ~100 usd just to test stuff) and losing is now embedded in my psyche. Every time I make a loss, my mind is so broken, I bail and look for alternative methods. Many untested. And I try to alternate my strategy in the fly. As of writing this, I should have acted on a very nice signal on eurusd, perfect on my strategy. Screenshot http://prntscr.com/p7bxl0 Instead, i had a crappy day prior, and started doing this http://prntscr.com/p7bydi TLDR You always hear about them. Greed, Fear, and all the other emotions that ruin a trader; but they refer to specific entries or situations. What do you do, when you can no longer trust your judgement? When you lost all faith in your own doing, feeling everyone else is better than you, trying to emulate other people's work... Even if you don't even have full access to it? When you are so broken, you don't trust yourself, even with a couple of dollars? When you feel you'll never crawl out? How do you get out of the abyss?
Tried to make a living out of Forex...Broke the account in the second month.
So, a few months back I saved some money and decided that I would be able to make a living out of forex making 12.5% per week, that was 2.5% per day from monday to friday. I had been in the Forex for six month in that time, with only $100 dollars account, and I had broke my account twice (One for not putting Stop-Loss and the other for not controlling my loss in revenge anger) But in the end I managed to make three months in a row making about 40-50% per month, and that was to me the sign that I had figured Forex. I used a combination of MACD, RSI, ADX. And always kept the lookout for the candlestick patterns, I also used Bollinger bands, but I never really checked them. My main Indicator though was the MACD, the rest was the confirmation I required. I negotiated only EURUSD and I worked with a 1:100 margin using a policy to hold 2,5% SL if I wasn't cofindent in the play but the indicators were saying I should go, and 5% if I was confident and the Indicators confirmed. I've made arrangements in my job and I saved enough money to live the way I am for one year and to put $2.000 in my Forex Account. My plan was to only start taking money out of the account after six months of gains. I quit my job in June, and 4th of July I started trading. First month I did well and got 50% even before the second week of the month, in the end of July I had $3.475,68 in my account. My confidence was high as was my spirit, everybody I talked too I would say how I found way to do something I loved and if I could keep my goals I would be a millionaire in less than five years; To everyone saying It was very risky I showed my gains from the first month and said I knew what I was doing. And then August came. First week of August I had three losses in a row, amounting to $400, and so I decided to take a quick break. One week reading and searching for what was wrong. When I cameback I had in me belief that I was going to make a good position on EURUSD. I don't know what I was thinking but I opened a position and I spike on the otherway around made me shiver so I moved the SL, believing it would eventually go the way I was planning; That day I went to bed and woke up with $1.000 less in my account, I was back to my starting $2.000 pretty much. What followed this week was the worst series of trade I ever did, each one pushing to lose even more. First I did a series of trades that downed me to $1.500, than I did a big trade that put me at $800, I managed to land a very good trade that took me all the way back to $1.400 and trying to duplicate the miracle I lost $800 in one single trade. Yesterday I lost $500 and right now I have $72 in my account. I don't know what I was thinking, I completely lost any of the things that made my set-up work, and now I've lost any chance to go back to where I started. I was overconfident and angry, and I know I have only myself to blame. I just needed to vent it to someone, and the worst part is that I'm ashamed to tell the people I've been bragging about the past month, to admit that I was not only wrong, but I lost everything on it as well. Guess I'l have to go back looking for a job and just suck it up. Thank you for reading all this way, and sorry for any grammar mistakes, I'm actually from Brazil and my english is not that good.
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Unathi Kwaza: https://t.co/cO2szctiBf Felicia sibeko sold her taxi. She took the whole R130,000 and invested in bushiri's forex scheme. Even today she is still waiting for a payout, now she is broke, poor and frustrated.
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This Random strategy broke even trading Forex every 15 minutes for a month.
New to Algo trading, and just learning and experimenting. I'm posting this more because I found it to be interesting, though I wonder if anyone could suggest one small change to give this an edge slightly above break-even. (One old weird trick the algorithms don't want you to know!?) I realize that 1 month isn't much time at all, but this thing traded every 15 minutes, 24/5. Results: Break-even, after fluctuating +/- 10% several times throughout. Parameters:
Account Value used per trade: 50%
Stop Loss: 10 Pip Trailing
Schedule: cron job on a Debian server, firing every 15 minutes
Step 1: Roll the dice to choose currency pair, each pair assigned to a side of the dice
Step 2: Flip a coin to determine direction. Heads for Long, Tails for Short
Step 3: Trade the randomly generated results
I thought this would waste my account in a big hurry, but I was pretty surprised at how well it did. Yeah, it isn't profitable, but for being totally random, I was not expecting it to break-even. This experiment was inspired by the Incerto series by N. N. Taleb. (I should clarify- he doesn't advocate for trading this way, just reading so much about randomness got me interested in the experiment) Here's a link to the actual script, for those interested. https://pastebin.com/raw/Qwcr6hMG
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